Is this the same as a trade-in quote?

No. It’s a generic curve. Actual offers depend on condition, region, incentives, and dealer margins. Use this as a range-finder before getting real bids.

Why use MSRP instead of the price I paid?

MSRP standardizes the curve. If you paid far above/below MSRP, adjust the MSRP input to your actual transaction price for closer alignment.

How should EVs be handled?

EV depreciation can differ based on incentives and battery health. This curve is generic; adjust the input value down if your EV lost more to incentives or range loss.

Does mileage penalty stack every year?

The tool compares total miles expected vs actual. If you’ve consistently driven above baseline, the penalty compounds because total miles exceed the age-adjusted expectation.

Can I include accident history?

Not directly. Reduce the MSRP input or add more years to simulate the value hit from accidents or poor condition.

Why is my estimate above/below local listings?

Regional demand, incentives, supply constraints, and condition can push market values away from generic curves. Use this as a baseline and adjust to your zip-code comparables.

Does the curve account for major refreshes or new model years?

No. If a redesign hurt prior-year values, reduce the MSRP input or add 1–2 years to simulate extra depreciation.

finance calculator

Vehicle Depreciation Curve

Estimate current vehicle value from MSRP using a simple year-by-year depreciation curve and mileage adjustment.

Results

Estimated current value: $22,889
Total depreciation: $22,111
Depreciation percent: 49.14%

How to use this calculator

Enter the vehicle’s original MSRP.
Enter age in years (use decimals for partial years, e.g., 2.5).
Add your annual miles; adjust the base miles if your market uses a different benchmark (e.g., 10k vs 12k).
Review estimated value, total depreciation amount, and depreciation percent.
Test different mileage scenarios (road-trip heavy vs garage queen) to see how value moves.

Inputs explained

Original MSRP: Manufacturer’s suggested retail price when new; excludes dealer markups.
Vehicle age: Age in years since model year in service; partial years allowed.
Annual miles driven: Your average yearly miles to adjust value for higher/lower use.
Base miles before penalty: Benchmark miles per year before depreciation penalty; lower this if your market uses 10k/year as ‘normal’.

How it works

Applies a front-loaded depreciation curve (e.g., ~20% first year, ~15% second, ~12% third, ~10% thereafter) to the original MSRP.

Calculates expected miles based on age and compares to the base annual miles; miles above the baseline add a value penalty.

Value never drops below a minimum floor to avoid unrealistic zero values; depreciation amount = MSRP − estimated value; percent = depreciation ÷ MSRP.

Formula

Year-by-year depreciation multipliers are applied to MSRP to get a baseline value. Mileage penalty reduces value for miles above (age × base miles), often using a per-mile decrement with a minimum floor. Depreciation amount = MSRP − estimated value. Depreciation percent = depreciation amount ÷ MSRP.

When to use it

Setting a private-party listing price starting point before checking comps.
Estimating whether your current coverage or GAP insurance aligns with likely market value.
Budgeting a fleet turnover schedule using a simple curve instead of VIN-level data.
Benchmarking lease vs buy decisions by visualizing early-year depreciation hits.
Discussing trade-in offers: sanity-check if a dealer offer is far below a generic curve baseline.
Planning road-trip heavy years and seeing how extra miles may push value down.
Estimating residual value for lease-style planning when you don’t have official residual tables.
Creating a depreciation budget for rideshare/delivery drivers who log heavy mileage.

Tips & cautions

Use partial years (e.g., 1.3) if the car is less than a full year old; early depreciation is steep.
If you know your model holds value unusually well (or poorly), adjust MSRP up or down by a small factor to mimic that effect.
Keep base miles aligned to your market: luxury leases often assume 10k/year; trucks may be closer to 15k/year.
For accident or condition issues, reduce MSRP input to mimic a lower starting point before the curve.
Cross-check against local listings or KBB/NADA when possible—this curve is a sanity check, not a quote.
If selling soon, consider seasonal effects (4x4s in winter markets, convertibles in summer) even though this model is season-agnostic.
Track odometer vs age: a car driven well under the base miles each year may merit a gentler penalty; adjust annual miles accordingly.
If you’re pricing a rare trim or package, inflate MSRP slightly to reflect the higher option content before applying the curve.
Use a lower base-mile benchmark for collector cars that are rarely driven; this widens the low-mile advantage.
Generic curve—does not factor brand/model-specific resale, trims, options, condition, accidents, or market shocks.
Mileage penalty is simplified and capped; real trade-in or private-party numbers will vary by region and channel.
No VIN-level history, title status, or incentive-driven price swings included.
No distinction between MSRP and transaction price—enter the realistic price paid if markups/discounts were large.
Does not model EV battery health or major repairs that can materially change value.

Worked examples

Typical three-year driver

MSRP $45,000, Age 3 years, Annual miles 12,000, Base miles 12,000.
Curve yields ≈ $27,000 value. Depreciation ≈ $18,000 (40%).
On-pace mileage means the baseline curve dominates the estimate.

Low-mileage garage queen

MSRP $60,000, Age 4 years, Annual miles 6,000, Base miles 12,000.
Mileage adjustment lifts value above baseline to ≈ $34,000 vs ~$30,000 baseline.
Depreciation ≈ $26,000 (43%)—better than average for its age due to low miles.

High-mileage commuter

MSRP $32,000, Age 5 years, Annual miles 22,000, Base miles 12,000.
Miles well above baseline create a larger penalty; estimated value ≈ $11,000.
Depreciation ≈ $21,000 (66%)—shows how heavy use accelerates value loss.

Early depreciation hit on new car

MSRP $50,000, Age 0.5 years, Annual miles 10,000, Base miles 12,000.
First-year curve trims value to ≈ $40,000 even with modest miles.
Depreciation ≈ $10,000 (20%) illustrates how quickly value falls off the lot.

Rideshare-heavy use case

MSRP $28,000, Age 2 years, Annual miles 35,000, Base miles 15,000.
High utilization drives a sizable penalty; estimated value ≈ $12,500.
Depreciation ≈ $15,500 (55%), showing why high-mile service vehicles lose value quickly.

Collector-leaning low miles

MSRP $70,000, Age 6 years, Annual miles 2,000, Base miles 10,000.
Mileage advantage offsets some age; estimated value ≈ $44,000 vs ~$36,000 baseline.
Depreciation ≈ $26,000 (37%)—illustrates how low miles can preserve value even on older vehicles.

Deep dive

Use this vehicle depreciation calculator to estimate current car value from MSRP using a simple depreciation curve and mileage adjustment.

Enter MSRP, age, and annual miles to see estimated value, total depreciation, and percent lost.

Model low-mile garage queens vs high-mile commuters to understand how usage changes resale value.

Test trade-in offers against a baseline curve before negotiating or listing privately.

Adjust base miles for luxury vs truck assumptions and see how far above/below the curve your driving sits.

Use the curve to sanity-check GAP insurance needs or total cost of ownership planning.

Plan rideshare or delivery vehicle budgets by modeling heavy-mile depreciation impacts.

Forecast residual value for lease-style planning when official tables are unavailable.

See how rare low-mile examples retain value compared to average-mile vehicles of the same age.

FAQs

Is this the same as a trade-in quote?: No. It’s a generic curve. Actual offers depend on condition, region, incentives, and dealer margins. Use this as a range-finder before getting real bids.
Why use MSRP instead of the price I paid?: MSRP standardizes the curve. If you paid far above/below MSRP, adjust the MSRP input to your actual transaction price for closer alignment.
How should EVs be handled?: EV depreciation can differ based on incentives and battery health. This curve is generic; adjust the input value down if your EV lost more to incentives or range loss.
Does mileage penalty stack every year?: The tool compares total miles expected vs actual. If you’ve consistently driven above baseline, the penalty compounds because total miles exceed the age-adjusted expectation.
Can I include accident history?: Not directly. Reduce the MSRP input or add more years to simulate the value hit from accidents or poor condition.
Why is my estimate above/below local listings?: Regional demand, incentives, supply constraints, and condition can push market values away from generic curves. Use this as a baseline and adjust to your zip-code comparables.
Does the curve account for major refreshes or new model years?: No. If a redesign hurt prior-year values, reduce the MSRP input or add 1–2 years to simulate extra depreciation.

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This is a generic depreciation model and not an appraisal. Real values depend on brand, trim, condition, accidents, options, incentives, region, and market volatility. Confirm with live market data before making financial decisions. Not financial advice.