How do I choose an effective tax rate?

You can approximate it by taking last year’s total tax (from your return) and dividing by last year’s total taxable income. Adjust up or down if your income or deductions are very different this year.

Does this tool use real tax brackets and deductions?

No. It uses a single effective rate and a lump-sum credit amount for simplicity. For detailed calculations, use IRS worksheets or full tax software that applies brackets, deductions, and phaseouts.

Will this match my final refund exactly?

Unlikely. It’s intended as a quick estimator to help you gauge whether you are generally over- or under-withheld. Many factors—such as additional income, deductions, credits, and penalties—affect your final result.

finance calculator

Tax Refund or Amount Due Estimator

Estimate your annual tax, apply credits, and see whether you’re likely to get a refund or owe more based on your withholding and an effective tax rate.

Results

Estimated tax before credits: $16,200
Estimated tax after credits: $16,200
Estimated refund: $0
Estimated amount owed: $2,200

How to use this calculator

Enter your annual income and an estimated effective tax rate (overall percentage of income you expect to pay in federal tax).
Enter your total tax withholding to date from paychecks and any expected tax payments, plus any credits you expect to claim.
We multiply your income by the effective tax rate to estimate tax before credits and subtract credits to estimate tax after credits.
We compare estimated tax to withholding to calculate either an estimated refund or an amount you may owe.
Review the results and adjust your withholding or estimated payments if you want to change the likely outcome.

Inputs explained

Annual income: Your best estimate of total taxable income for the year (or a close proxy), including wages, self-employment income, and other taxable sources.
Effective tax rate: Overall rate you expect to pay on taxable income (not marginal); simplified estimate.
Credits: Include refundable and nonrefundable credits you expect; this is a rough estimate.

How it works

Estimated tax before credits = income × effective tax rate.

Estimated tax after credits = max(0, tax before credits − credits).

Refund = max(0, withholding − estimated tax). Amount owed = max(0, estimated tax − withholding).

Formula

Estimated tax before credits = Annual income × (Effective tax rate ÷ 100)\nEstimated tax after credits = max(0, Estimated tax before credits − Credits)\nRefund = max(0, Withholding − Estimated tax after credits)\nAmount owed = max(0, Estimated tax after credits − Withholding)

When to use it

Quick check on whether you’re over- or under-withholding.
Budgeting for a potential tax bill before filing season.

Tips & cautions

Use a realistic effective rate; compare to last year’s return if your income is similar.
For precision, run full tax software; this is a simple back-of-the-envelope estimator.
Simplified; does not use real brackets, deductions, or phaseouts.
Refund/owed assumes accurate withholding and ignores penalties/interest.

Worked examples

Likely refund scenario

Annual income = $90,000; effective tax rate = 18%; withholding = $18,000; credits = $1,000.
Estimated tax before credits = 90,000 × 0.18 = $16,200.
Estimated tax after credits = 16,200 − 1,000 = $15,200.
Refund = max(0, 18,000 − 15,200) = $2,800; amount owed = $0.

Possible amount due scenario

Annual income = $120,000; effective tax rate = 20%; withholding = $20,000; credits = $0.
Estimated tax before credits = 120,000 × 0.20 = $24,000.
Estimated tax after credits = 24,000.
Amount owed = max(0, 24,000 − 20,000) = $4,000; refund = $0.

Deep dive

Estimate your tax refund or amount owed by entering income, effective tax rate, withholding, and credits.

Use this quick tax refund estimator to see if you’re likely to get a refund or owe when you file.

FAQs

How do I choose an effective tax rate?: You can approximate it by taking last year’s total tax (from your return) and dividing by last year’s total taxable income. Adjust up or down if your income or deductions are very different this year.
Does this tool use real tax brackets and deductions?: No. It uses a single effective rate and a lump-sum credit amount for simplicity. For detailed calculations, use IRS worksheets or full tax software that applies brackets, deductions, and phaseouts.
Will this match my final refund exactly?: Unlikely. It’s intended as a quick estimator to help you gauge whether you are generally over- or under-withheld. Many factors—such as additional income, deductions, credits, and penalties—affect your final result.

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This tax refund or amount due estimator uses a simplified effective-rate approach and is for educational and planning purposes only. It does not implement full federal or state tax rules, brackets, deductions, or penalty calculations and should not be relied on as tax advice. Always consult IRS publications or a qualified tax professional when making tax decisions or filing your return.